> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/live-data-and-adapters/price-models.md). # Price models ## Price models A debate is the right tool for a question that turns on evidence and judgement. It is the wrong tool for a question that is really about volatility and time. For price-driven crypto markets, NFA uses a quantitative model instead. ### Threshold markets For markets like "will an asset reach a given level by a date," NFA prices the probability that the asset's price path touches or crosses the threshold before the deadline, using the asset's current price and its recent volatility. The raw model is then calibrated against historical outcomes so its stated probabilities line up with reality rather than being systematically over- or under-confident. ### Short-horizon direction markets For very short "up or down over the next few hours" markets, the honest answer is that the market price is already close to optimal and a debate would only invent a story around noise. NFA treats these as a first-passage calculation from the window's opening price, and where the horizon is short enough that there is no real edge to be had, it declines to forecast rather than pretend to one. {% hint style="info" %} Knowing where **not** to forecast is part of the design. NFA sits out the markets where the crowd is already efficient and concentrates on the ones where research, data, and reasoning can actually move the number. See [Discovery and the picker](/nfa-docs/the-market-lifecycle/discovery-and-the-picker.md). {% endhint %} --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter: ``` GET https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/live-data-and-adapters/price-models.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.