> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/the-forecasting-engine.md).

# The forecasting engine

## The forecasting engine

The engine is the core of NFA. Everything else exists to feed it good inputs or to check its output. This section explains how a single market becomes a calibrated probability, and why the design is built the way it is.

### Why debate and judge

A single model asked "what is the probability?" gives a confident guess with no structure you can inspect. NFA splits the work into three roles with different incentives:

* **Advocates** each argue for one outcome and only that outcome. Each does its own research, so it brings information the others lack.
* **The debate** forces the strongest case for every side into the open, with rebuttals aimed at the decisive question.
* **The judge** stays impartial, reads the whole exchange, and rules a calibrated distribution.

The result is a forecast with a full trace: who argued what, which claim was decisive, what evidence settled it, and how confident the ruling was.

### The pipeline at a glance

```mermaid
flowchart TD
    A[Market] --> B[Bind and classify]
    B --> C[Research]
    C --> D[Cast advocates]
    D --> E[Opening statements]
    E --> F[Rebuttal rounds]
    F --> G[Find the crux]
    G --> H[Verify the crux]
    H --> I[Judge rules]
    I --> J[Distribution]
    J --> K[Self-verification]
    K --> L[Record and price]
```

The pages in this section walk each stage in order, then cover the cross-cutting machinery: anchoring, self-verification, the quality badges, and how runs are priced and made reproducible.


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