> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/the-market-lifecycle.md). # The market lifecycle ## The market lifecycle A market moves through four stages inside NFA: it is discovered, bound, resolved, and scored. Each stage has a single shared definition used everywhere, so no two parts of the system can disagree about the same market. ```mermaid flowchart LR D[Discovery and picker] --> B[Binding and topology] B --> Run[Forecast run] Run --> R[Resolution poller] R --> S[Accuracy scoring] S --> K[Skill and Brier] ``` ### The stages * **Discovery** pulls the full forecastable Polymarket catalogue and filters out the families where NFA has no edge (single-game sports, intraday crypto, city temperature). * **Binding** turns a market into a clean set of outcomes: it detects the market's topology, condenses long fields, folds placeholder noise, and refuses markets that are already decided. * **Resolution** watches bound-but-unscored runs and ingests each market's settlement the moment it is certain, using identity-safe keying so a sibling market is never mistaken for the one you forecast. * **Accuracy scoring** computes a Brier score for the forecast and the market on the same outcome set, so beating the market is a like-for-like comparison, and records why any run was excluded. --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter: ``` GET https://nfa.gitbook.io/nfa-docs/the-market-lifecycle.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.